A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
